USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2007/08 U.S. rice crop is 190.4 million cwt, up slightly from last month's projection, but down 3.3 million cwt from 2006/07. Average yield is forecast at 6,984 pounds per acre, up 14 pounds per acre from last month. Area harvested is unchanged from a month ago.  Long-grain production is forecast at 140.0 million cwt, up 0.5 million cwt from last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 50.4 million cwt, nearly the same as last month.  No changes are made on the use side.  Ending stocks are projected at 27.1 million cwt, up slightly from last month.  The season-average farm price is projected at $9.75 to $10.25, unchanged from last month.

Projected global 2007/08 production, consumption and ending stocks are raised from a month ago.  World 2007/08 rice production is projected at a record 421.2 million tons, 0.4 million tons above last month.  The larger world rice crop is primarily due to production in India estimated at 92 million tons (up 0.5 million tons).  Rice crops in EU-27 and Pakistan are lowered slightly, which partially offset the increase in India. 

India's 2006/07 rice crop is raised to a near-record 92.8 million tons (up 1.7 million tons); the increase in production in both 2006/07 and 2007/08 also raises India's rice stocks.  India's 2007/08 ending stocks are estimated at 10.2 million tons, up 2.2 million tons from last month, but down 1.2 million tons from revised 2006/07.  World 2007/08 ending stocks are projected at
73.8 million tons, up 1.8 million tons from last month,down 3.6 million tons from revised 2006/07, and the lowest stocks since 1983/84.