The USDA has projected that the US rice supplies are projected to increase 10% in 2004/05 to a record 265.8 million hundredweight (cwt) (rough basis), as a record harvest more than offsets a smaller carryin and a decline in imports. Long grain supplies are projected at 187.5 million cwt, up 7 percent from a year earlier. Combined medium/short grain supplies are projected at 77.4 million cwt, an increase of 17 percent and the largest since 1983/84.

Please find the link to the full summary for the 2004 Rice Yearbook below.

The US Dept of Agriculture has projected smaller crop, tighter supplies for 2003/04 for US rice. The US 2003/04 rice exports are projected to drop 24% to 95 million cwt. The US season-average farm price projected highest since 1998/99.

International Outlook for 2003/04

The gobal trading price show little strength; import demand weaker. India and the United States are projected to ship less rice in 2004.

Please find the link to the full text for the 2003 Rice Yearbook below.

Record Supplies, Weaker Prices
Projected for 2002/03 U.S. Rice Market

Total U.S. rice supplies for 2002/03 (August-July) are projected at a record 264 million hundredweight (cwt) (rough basis), up almost 4 percent from a year earlier. A 37-percent increase in beginning stocks to 39 million cwt more than offset a fractional drop in production to 212 million cwt--still the second highest on record--and a 1-percent cut in imports to 13 million cwt. This is the second consecutive year of record total rice supplies, primarily due to bumper crops in both 2001 and 2002.

U.S. rice plantings for 2002/03 are estimated at more than 3.2 million acres, down 3 percent from a year earlier. All of the acreage decline is in the South. A bearish price outlook--as well as heavy rains at plantings in parts of the Delta--are behind the decline. The average yield is projected at a record 6,611 pounds per acre, up 182 pounds from a year earlier. Increased plantings of new, higher yielding southern long grain varieties are behind this year’s third consecutive record yield.

Long grain accounts for all of this year’s production decline. Long grain production in 2002/03 is projected at 157.5 million cwt, down 5 percent from a year earlier’s record, a result of weaker plantings. Nearly all U.S. long grain rice is produced in the South. In contrast, combined medium/short grain production is projected to increase 14 percent to 54.5 million cwt, primarily a result of larger plantings. At planting, medium grain prices were slightly higher than a year earlier and stronger than prices for long grain, a major factor behind expanded plantings of medium/short grain acreage this year. Last year, rice production in California--where two-thirds of the U.S. medium/short grain crop is grown--was down 12 percent from a year earlier, a main factor driving the higher medium grain prices.

In the South, acreage is typically shifted among classes of rice--i.e., long, medium, and short--based on expected returns. Higher field yields for long-grain rice made long grain more profitable to many southern producers, despite higher prices for medium-grain rice.

Total use is projected at a record 225 million cwt in 2002/03, up 4 percent from a year earlier. Exports account for the majority of this year’s higher use. Total U.S. rice exports are projected at a record 100 million cwt, 6 percent above a year earlier. Competitive prices, record supplies, and expanded global trade are behind the robust U.S. export forecast. Rough rice exports for 2002/03 are projected at a record 35 million cwt, up 10 percent from a year earlier’s previous high. Combined milled and brown rice exports (on a rough basis) are projected at 65 million cwt, up 4 percent from 2001/02 and the largest since 1996/97. Total domestic use is projected at a record 125 million cwt, up almost 3 percent from a year earlier.

Total ending stocks for 2002/03 are projected at 39 million cwt, unchanged from a year earlier and the largest since 1992/93. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 17.3 percent, down from a year earlier’s 18.1 percent. About 4 million cwt of the 2002 U.S. rice crop has been forfeited to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC), the first significant forfeiture in 8 years. Of the 4-million cwt forfeited, 1-2 million will likely be taken over by the CCC. The rest was sold earlier this year at or below market prices, a factor contributing to lower prices this year.

U.S. Long Grain Supplies
Projected To Rise 4 Percent to Record

U.S. long grain supplies are projected at a record 193.5 million cwt, up 4 percent from a year earlier. A 130-percent increase in beginning stocks and record imports more than offset the smaller crop. At 26.8 million cwt, beginning stocks of long-grain rice are the largest since 1987/88. Long grain imports are projected at nearly 9.3 million cwt, fractionally above a year earlier.

Total long grain use is projected at a record 167.7 million cwt, an increase of more than 5 percent from a year earlier. Domestic use is projected at a record 88.7 million cwt, more than 3 percent above 2001/02. Long grain exports are projected to climb more than 7 percent to 79 million cwt, second only to the 1994/95 record of 81.4 million. Long grain ending stocks are projected to drop 1 million cwt to 25.8 million cwt in 2002/03. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 15.4 percent, down from 16.8 a year earlier.

Total supplies of combined medium/short grain rice are projected at 68.9 million cwt, nearly 3 percent above a year earlier. A 14-percent increase in production more than offset a drop in beginning stocks and weaker imports. Imports, projected at 3.8 million cwt, are down 7 percent from a year earlier’s record.

Total medium/short grain use is projected to increase nearly 2 percent to 57.3 million cwt. Both domestic use and exports are projected higher in 2002/03. Medium/short grain domestic use is projected to increase more than 1 percent to 36.3 million cwt. Exports are projected to expand 2 percent to 21 million cwt. The net result is a 1-million cwt increase in ending stocks to 11.6 million cwt. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected to rise 20.3 percent, up from 18.9 percent a year earlier.

The 2002/03 season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $3.70 to $4.00 per cwt, down from $4.17 a year earlier and the lowest since 1986/87. This is the sixth consecutive year of declining SAFP in the United States. In October 2002, quoted prices for long-grain rice were the lowest in more than 15 years, a result of record U.S. supplies and continued weak international prices. For medium/short grain rice, U.S. price quotes began to drop in July in anticipation of a larger U.S. harvest this year. By mid-November, medium grain price quotes were slightly lower than a year earlier but still higher than quotes in 2000/01 when California produced a record crop.

U.S. prices for long grain milled rice are well below a year earlier. In mid-November, prices for high-quality southern long grain (U.S. No. 2, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b mill in Houston) were quoted at $198 per ton, down $22 from a year earlier. Prices were actually reported as low as $165 in June, the lowest in 15 years. The recent price strength was primarily due to tight milling capacity during the summer and early fall. Prices for California medium grain milled rice (U.S. No. 1, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b. mill in Sacramento) have been quoted at $265 per ton since mid-April, down $20 from a year earlier.

Global Rice Prices Show Little Strength,
Despite Smaller Supplies & Stronger Trade

Since July 2002, global trading prices have dropped 5-10 percent, despite contracting supplies and expanding trade. Prices for Thailand’s 100 percent grade B have been quoted at $188-$197 per ton since early August, quite low by historical comparison. From April through July 2002, prices were reported at $200-$210 per ton. In November 2001, trading prices began to rise due to government intervention purchases by Thailand. By July 2002, prices began to drop due to record subsidized exports from India. India began subsidizing exports in the spring of 2001. Trading prices have shown little movement since early fall. During much of 2001, global trading prices had been the lowest in three decades, a result of bumper crops in most major exporting countries, and, except for parts of the Middle East, no significant production problems in a major importing country.

Global rice production in 2002/03 is projected at 381.8 million tons (milled basis) down 4 percent from a year earlier and the smallest since 1996/97. This is the third consecutive year of declining global rice production. Despite the smaller crop, only modest price strengthening is expected in 2002/03, primarily due to reduced export subsidies from India. Since this forecast assumes normal weather for the remainder of the 2002/03 market year, a major weather problem could alter this projection. Global ending stocks are projected at 106.1 million tons, down 20 percent from a year earlier and the lowest since 1987/88.

India and China--both major exporters--account for the bulk of this year’s expected reduction in global rice production. However, both countries are expected to have plenty of supplies for both their domestic market and to remain major exporters in 2002 and 2003. Other major exporters--Thailand, Vietnam, and the United States--are expected to produce record or near-record crops in 2002/03. Drought reduced Pakistan’s 2001/02 and 2002/03 crops, limiting exports. Most major importers are expecting to harvest bumper crops in 2002/03.

For 2003, global rice trade is projected at 26.6 million tons (milled basis), fractionally above a year earlier and second only to the 1998 record of 27.7 million tons. In 2002, global rice trade jumped 9 percent. Indonesia, Iraq, Iran, and Nigeria accounted for most of the expansion in 2003 imports. For 2003, larger imports by Brazil, Bangladesh, and the Philippines are nearly offset by weaker imports by Indonesia, Iran, and Iraq. On the export side, Thailand, Vietnam, Burma, China, and the United States are all expected to ship more rice in 2003 than this year, while India and Pakistan are expected to export less rice.

Total U.S. rice supplies for 2001/02 (August-July) are projected at 249.2 million hundredweight (cwt) (rough basis), up almost 9 percent from a year earlier and the largest on record. A 10-percent increase in production to a record 209.7 million cwt and an almost 4-percent increase in beginning stocks to 28.5 million cwt account for the bulk of the supply increase. In addition, imports are projected up 1 percent to a record 11 million cwt.

U.S. rice plantings for 2001/02 are estimated at more than 3.3 million acres, up more than 8 percent from a year earlier. Higher total returns to rice than alternative crops--primarily soybeans in the South--were behind the rice acreage expansion. The average yield is projected to be a record 6,374 pounds per acre, up fractionally from a year earlier. Extremely good weather during the growing season across much of the South--where the bulk of the U.S. crop is grown--and increased plantings of new, higher yielding southern long grain varieties are behind this years second consecutive record yield.

Long grain accounts for all of the increase in production. Long grain production in 2001/02 is projected at a record 162.3 million cwt, up 26 percent from a year earlier. At planting, long grain prices were slightly higher than a year earlier and stronger than prices for medium grain, major factors behind increased long grain acreage this year. Nearly all U.S. long grain rice is produced in the South. In contrast, combined medium/short grain production is projected to decline nearly 24 percent to 47.5 million cwt, a result of a 26-percent drop in plantings. Extremely low prices at planting--the result of a record 2000 California crop--were behind the decline in medium/short grain acreage plantings. California accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. medium/short grain crop. In the South, acreage is typically shifted among classes of rice--i.e., long, medium, and short--based on expected returns.

Total use is projected at 207 million cwt in 2001/02, up 3 percent from a year earlier but almost 2 percent below the 1999/2000 record. Both domestic use and exports are projected higher in 2001/02. Total domestic use is projected at 121 million cwt, up 3 percent from a year earlier but fractionally below the 1999/2000 record. U.S. rice exports are projected to increase 3 percent to 86 million cwt, primarily due to more competitive U.S. prices. Milled and brown rice exports (on a rough basis) account for nearly all of the increase. U.S. milled rice exports are projected at 63 million cwt, up almost 4 percent from a year earlier. Rough rice exports are projected to increase fractionally to 23 million cwt, nearly 12 percent below the 1997/98 record. By class, long grain rice is projected to increase 7 percent, accounting for all of the export expansion. Combined medium/short grain exports are projected to decline 11 percent.

Total ending stocks are projected at 42.2 million cwt, up more than 48 percent from a year earlier and the largest since 1986/87. The higher stocks are the result of a 9-percent increase in total supplies more than offsetting a 3-percent increase in total use. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 20.4 percent, well above a year earlier’s 14.2 percent and the largest since 1992/93. Long grain accounts for all of the expected increase in ending stocks. Medium/short grain stocks are projected to decline.

U.S. Long Grain Supplies Projected To Rise 19 Percent to Record

U.S. long grain supplies are projected at nearly 183 million cwt, a record and up more than 19 percent from a year earlier. A 26-percent increase in production and slightly higher imports account for the record U.S. supplies. In contrast, long grain beginning stocks are almost 26 percent below a year earlier. Total long grain use is projected to increase more than 10 percent to more than 156 million cwt, just 1 percent below the 1999/2000 record. Both domestic use and exports of long grain rice are projected to be higher than a year earlier, a result of lower prices and record supplies.

Long grain ending stocks are projected to increase 130 percent to 26.8 million cwt in 2001/02, the largest since 1986/87. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 17.2 percent, more than double a year earlier and the highest since 1992/93. U.S. long grain prices will be under substantial price pressure throughout the 2001/02 market year.

The medium/short grain market faces a somewhat different outlook in 2001/02. Total medium/short grain supplies are projected to drop almost 14 percent to 65 million cwt. A 24-percent drop in production to 47.5 million cwt more than offset an almost 50-percent increase in beginning stocks to 15.6 million cwt. Imports, projected at 2 million cwt, are virtually unchanged from a year earlier.

Total medium/short grain use is projected to drop 14 percent to 50.9 million cwt, the smallest since 1992/93. Both domestic use and exports are projected to decline in 2001/02. Medium/short grain domestic use is projected to drop more than 15 percent to 34.9 million cwt. Exports are projected to decline nearly 11 percent to 16 million cwt. The net result is a 9-percent drop in ending stocks to 14.1 million cwt. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected to rise slightly to 27.8 percent, the largest since 1992/93.

The 2001/02 season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $4.00 to $4.50 per cwt, down from a year earlier’s $5.56 and the lowest since 1986/87. This is the fifth consecutive year of declining SAFP in the United States. The price situation by grain type is expected to be different. Long grain prices have already declined from prices quoted at the start of the 2001/02 market year and are currently the lowest since 1986/87. For medium/short grain rice, U.S. prices began to strengthen late last spring in anticipation of a substantial drop in U.S. supplies this year. However, despite the recent strengthening, U.S. medium/short grain prices are only slightly higher than a year earlier and are quite low by historic comparison.

U.S. prices for long grain milled rice are well below a year earlier. In late-November, prices for high quality southern long grain (U.S. No. 2, 4-percent brokens, fob mill in Houston) were quoted at $220 per ton, down $56 from August and the lowest since 1987. Prices for California medium grain milled rice (U.S. No. 1, 4-percent brokens, fob mill in Sacramento) were quoted at $287 per ton in late-November, up $67 from mid-September.

Global Trade Projected Flat in 2002; Prices Remain Near 15-Year Low

Since last April, international rice prices have been the lowest in 15 years, a result of bumper crops in most major exporting countries, and except for parts of the Middle East, no significant production problems in a major importing country. For 2002, global rice trade is projected at 23 million tons (milled basis), virtually the same as a year earlier and 17 percent below the 1998 record. Global rice production in 2001/02 is projected at 393.3 million tons (milled basis) down fractionally from a year earlier and almost 4 percent below the 1999/2000 record of 408.5 million tons. Despite the smaller crop there is little expectation of any price strengthening. This forecast assumes normal weather for the remainder of the 2001/02 market year. A major weather problem could alter this projection.

Global rice prices remained relatively flat from April through mid-November, with quoted prices for Thai 100-percent Grade B averaging $175 per ton. This is the longest period that prices remained at this low of a level since the early 1970s. Since mid-November international prices have risen slightly, primarily due to higher prices for Vietnams rice. Prices for Vietnams 5-percent brokens, currently quoted at $192 per ton, are up more than $40 since early July due to a tight supply situation.

China accounts for the bulk of this years expected reduction in global rice production. However, China is expected to have plenty of supplies for both its domestic market and to expand exports. Other major exporters--Thailand, Vietnam, India, and the United States--are expected to produce record- or near-record crops in 2001/02. Drought reduced Pakistan’s crop in 2001/02. With the exception of a severe drought in parts of the Middle East that has significantly reduced crops in Iran and Iraq, most major importers are expecting to harvest bumper crops in 2001/02.

Global rice trade has essentially been flat at 23 million tons annually since 2000. For 2002, higher imports by Indonesia, Iran, Turkey, and Bangladesh are offset by weaker imports by Nigeria, the Philippines, and Saudi Arabia. For other major importers, such as Iraq, Japan, Brazil, and South Africa, trade is projected flat in 2002. For many importers, especially Indonesia, the Philippines, and Brazil, trade remains well below the 1998 record, a result of strong production recovery from the 1997/98 El Nino and large stocks accumulated in the late 1990s.

Total U.S. rice supplies for 2000/01 are projected at 230.2 million hundredweight (cwt) (rough basis), down more than 3 percent from a year earlier's record. A 7-percent drop in production to 192.4 million cwt is behind the projected smaller total supplies. In contrast, beginning stocks and imports are up slightly from a year earlier.

U.S. rice plantings for 2000/01 are estimated at 3.11 million acres, down 12 percent from a year earlier's near record. Lower prices, as well as some drought-related problems in Louisiana, are behind this year's decline in rice acreage. In contrast, the average yield is projected to be a record 6,236 pounds per acre, up 6 percent from a year earlier. Generally good weather in most rice producing areas and a greater share of total U.S. plantings in California--which achieves the highest yields in the United States--are behind the stronger yield this year.

Long grain accounts for almost all of the decline in production. Long grain production in 2000/01 is projected at 130.6 million cwt, down 14 percent from a year earlier's record. Low prices at planting were behind a major drop in long grain plantings across the South. In contrast, combined medium/short grain production is projected to rise 14 percent to 61.8 million cwt, the largest since 1994/95. The larger crop is the result of expanded acreage in both California--which produces the bulk of the U.S. medium/short grain crop-- and in the South. In fact, California is expected to produce a record crop in 2000/01. At planting, medium grain prices were substantially higher than long grain prices.

Total use is projected at 202.9 million cwt in 2000/01, down nearly 4 percent from a year earlier's record. Exports account for all of the expected decline in total use. Domestic disappearance is projected to increase fractionally. U.S. rice exports are projected to drop more than 10 percent to 80 million cwt, the lowest since 1996/97. While rough rice exports are projected to remain virtually unchanged at 25 million cwt, milled rice exports are projected to drop 14 percent to 64 million, the smallest in more than 20 years. Smaller U.S. supplies and expectations of very strong price competition in the international market are behind the substantial drop in U.S. milled rice exports.

With both total supply and total use each declining by nearly 8 million cwt, ending stocks are projected to drop just fractionally to 27.3 million cwt in 2000/01. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 13.4 percent, barely above a year earlier's 13.1 percent.

U.S. Long Grain Supplies
Projected To Drop 10 Percent in 2000/01

The market outlook is very different by grain type. Long grain supplies are projected to drop more than 10 percent, to 155 million cwt, the smallest since 1997/98. A 14-percent drop in production accounts for the smaller supplies. Long grain beginning stocks and imports are up from 1999/2000. Total long grain use is projected to drop 10 percent to 142 million cwt, also the lowest since 1997/98. Both domestic use and exports of long grain rice are projected to be well below a year earlier.

Long grain ending stocks are projected to drop 15 percent to 13.3 million cwt, the lowest since 1995/96. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 9.3 percent, down from 9.9 percent in 1999/2000 and the second lowest since supply and use tables were first reported by grain type in 1982/83.

The medium/short grain market faces a very different outlook in 2000/01. Total supplies are projected to rise 16 percent to 73.4 million cwt, the largest since 1994/95. Both beginning stocks and production are up substantially from a year earlier. Total medium/short grain use is projected to rise 15 percent to 60.9 million cwt. Domestic use is expected to account for all of the increase. Exports are projected at 18 million cwt, virtually unchanged from a year earlier. The net result is a 20-percent increase in
ending stocks to 12.5 million cwt, the largest since 1995/96. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected to rise slightly to 20.6 percent.

The 2000/01 season-average farm price is projected at $5.75 to $6.25 per cwt, with a mid-point of $6.00, nearly unchanged from a year earlier's $6.11. However, the price situation by grain type is expected to be very different. Long grain prices have already risen from the recent lows of last spring and summer, a result of expected tighter supplies and several large food aid purchases early in the 2000/01 market year. In contrast, medium/short grain prices began dropping at harvest in both the South and California from the relatively high levels of the past 2 years. The recent decline is due to much larger supplies this year.

U.S. prices for both long and medium grain milled rice are well below a year earlier. In late November, prices for high quality southern long grain (U.S. No. 2, 4-percent brokens, fob mill in Houston) were quoted at $276 per ton, down from almost $300 a year earlier. However, U.S. long grain milled prices were as low as $248 in May before rising on several large food aid purchases and expectations of tight supplies in 2000/01. Prices for California medium grain milled rice (U.S. No. 1, 4-percent brokens, fob mill in Sacramento) were quoted at $342 per ton in late November, down from $452 a year earlier. Prices for California medium grain have been dropping since mid-summer on expectations of a record California harvest.

Abundant Supplies Projected for
Major Exporters in 2001

Since last summer, international rice prices have been the lowest in seven years, a result of bumper crops in 1999/2000 in most major exporting countries, and, except for Iran, no significant production problems were reported in a major importing country. For 2000/01, even with global rice production projected to drop more than 1 percent from a year earlier's record to 397.7 million tons (milled basis), there is little expectation of any price strengthening. This forecast assumes normal weather for the remainder of the 2000/01 market year. A major weather problem could alter this projection.

China accounts for the bulk of this year's expected reduction in global rice production. However, China is expected to have plenty of supplies for both its domestic market and to expand exports. Other major exporters--Thailand, Vietnam, and India--are expected to produce record- or near-record crops in 2000/01. Drought reduced Pakistan's crop in 2000/01, and the United States' crop is down due to weaker plantings. With the exception of a severe drought in parts of the Middle East that has reduced crops in Iran and Iraq, most major importers are expecting to harvest bumper crops in 2000/01.

Global rice trade is projected at 24.6 million tons in 2001, up 8 percent from a year earlier but still 10 percent below the 1998 record of 27.3 million tons. On the import side, Indonesia accounts for the bulk of the increase in global trade, with imports expected to rise 1 million tons to 3 million, a result of steady production and rising population. Iran and North Korea are the only other countries where imports are projected to rise more than 100,000 tons in 2001. Smaller increases in imports are projected for the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Cuba, Guinea, and China. In contrast, imports are projected to decline in 2001 for Bangladesh, Malaysia, and South Africa.

On the export side, Thailand, Vietnam, India, and China are all expected to ship more rice in 2001. Pakistan's exports are projected to drop slightly in 2001, and U.S. exports are expected to remain unchanged from 2000. Both Australia and Egypt are projected to export more rice in 2001, indicating strong competition with the United States in the eastern Mediterranean.