USDA World Rice Supply-Demand Report

The U.S. 2007/08 rice crop is estimated at 197.5 million cwt, down slightly from the previous estimate, but 2 percent above 006/07.  Average yield is estimated at a record 7,185 pounds per acre, down 62 pounds per acre from November but 317 pounds per acre above 2006/07.  Planted area is estimated at 2.761 million acres, up slightly from November but a decrease of 3 percent from 2006/07.  Imports for 2007/08 are projected at a record 21.5 million cwt, unchanged from last month.

Domestic and residual use is projected at 124.7 million cwt, unchanged from last month. The all-rice export projection is unchanged at 109 million cwt.  Ending stocks for 2007/08 are projected at 24.6 million cwt, down slightly from last month.  The season-average farm price range is unchanged at $10.90 to $11.40 per cwt and compares to $9.74 per cwt in 2006/07.  The midpoint of the price range at $11.15 per cwt would be the highest season-average farm price since 1980/81 ($12.80 per cwt).

Global production and ending stocks for 2007/08 are raised slightly from a month ago, while trade and consumption are lowered a little.  The increase in global rice production is due primarily to an increase in Thailand.  Global exports are lowered 0.6 million tons due to reductions for China and Pakistan.  Imports are lowered for Cuba, China, and some African markets.

Global ending stocks are projected at 72.5 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month, down 3.0 million from 2006/07, and the lowest stocks since 1983/84.  The stocks-to-use ratio at 17.1 percent is the lowest since 1976/77.