USDA Supply And Demand Report - US and International Rice

RICE:  U.S. rice production in 2007/08 is projected at 183
million cwt, about 6 percent below 2006/07, and the smallest
crop since 1997/98.  Planted area is estimated at 2.64 million
acres as reported in Prospective Plantings, down 7 percent
from 2006, and the lowest area since 1987/88.  Average rice
yield is projected at a near-record 6,966 pounds per acre, up
98 pounds per acre or about 1 percent from 2006/07.  Imports
for 2007/08 are projected at a record 21.0 million cwt, up 2
percent from revised 2006/07. 

Domestic and residual use for 2007/08 is projected at a record
124.7 million cwt, about 2 percent above 2006/07.  Exports are
projected at 93 million cwt, 4 percent below the revised
2006/07 projection.  Tighter supplies and higher prices will
constrain exports in the new marketing year.  The 2006/07
export projection is lowered 5 million cwt to 97 million cwt.
Ending stocks in 2007/08 are projected at 23.7 million cwt,
about 37 percent below revised 2006/07.  The projected
season price range for 2007/08 is $10.25 to $10.75 per cwt,
compared to a revised $9.65 to $9.75 per cwt for 2006/07.
Tighter domestic supplies along with expected higher global
prices will help to support prices during the year.

Global 2007/08 rice production is projected at a record 420.8
million tons, up 4.3 million from 2006/07.  World
disappearance (consumption and residual) is projected at a
record 424.5 million tons, up 5.5 million tons.  Global exports
are expected to be about the same as 2006/07 at nearly 30
million tons.  Ending stocks are expected to decline for the
seventh consecutive year to 72 million tons, 3.7 million below
2006/07, and the lowest since 1983/84.  The global stocks-to-
use ratio is projected at 16.9 percent, down from 18.1 percent
in 2006/07, and the lowest since 1976/77.

The historical Vietnam supply and use balances have been
modified beginning with the 1997/98 marketing year to reflect
lower stocks and higher disappearance (consumption and
residual).  Vietnam's rice stocks are revised downward
reflecting input from the U.S. Agricultural Affairs Office in
Hanoi and market analysis.  Ending stocks in Vietnam in
2007/08 are estimated at 1.2 million tons.