USDA Supply And Demand Estimates For US And Global Rice

RICE:  U.S. rice supplies in 2007/08 are raised 5 million
cwt from a month ago owing to an increase in beginning
stocks and imports.  Beginning stocks are raised 4.5
million cwt to nearly 42 million cwt, down about 1 million
cwt from the year earlier.  Imports are raised 0.5 million
cwt to a record 21.5 million cwt, up 0.5 million cwt from
revised 2006/07.  Total use in 2007/08 is raised 3 million
cwt, due entirely to increased exports.  Exports are
projected at 96 million cwt, with long-grain exports raised
2 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain
exports up 1 million cwt.  The 2006/07 export estimate is
lowered 4 million cwt to 93 million, and the import estimate
is raised 0.5 million.  The season-average farm price for
2007/08 is projected at $10.00 to $10.50 per cwt, down 25
cents per cwt on each end from a month ago and
compares to a revised $9.75 per cwt for 2006/07.

Global 2007/08 rice production, imports, exports, and
consumption are increased slightly from last month while
ending stocks are lowered fractionally.  Ending stocks are
projected at 71.8 million tons, down 3.7 million tons from
last year.

U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/
                 (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice)
===============================================================================
                            :         :         :      2007/08  Projections
        Item                : 2005/06 : 2006/07 :==============================
                            :         :   Est.  :         May            June
===============================================================================
TOTAL                       :
Area                        :               Million acres
 Planted                    :   3.38       2.84          2.64 *          2.64 *
 Harvested                  :   3.36       2.82          2.63 *          2.63 *
Yield per harvested         :                    Pounds
   acre                     :  6,636      6,868         6,966 *         6,966 *
                            :
                            :            Million hundredweight
                            :
 Beginning stocks 2/        :   37.7       43.0          37.4            41.9
 Production                 :  223.2      193.7         183.0           183.0
 Imports                    :   17.1       21.0          21.0            21.5
   Supply, total            :  278.1      257.7         241.4           246.4
 Domestic & residual 3/     :  119.3      122.8         124.7           124.7
 Exports, total 4/          :  115.8       93.0          93.0            96.0
  Rough                     :   34.1       33.5          34.0            34.0
  Milled (rough equiv.)     :   81.6       59.5          59.0            62.0
   Use, total               :  235.1      215.8         217.7           220.7
 Ending stocks              :   43.0       41.9          23.7            25.7
Avg. milling yield (%) 5/   :   70.2       71.0          70.5            70.5
Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/  :   7.65       9.75   10.25-10.75     10.00-10.50
                            :
LONG GRAIN                  :
 Harvested acres (mil.)     :   2.73       2.19
 Yield (pounds/acre)        :  6,493      6,689
 Beginning stocks           :   22.7       32.7          27.6            29.1
 Production                 :  177.5      146.2         134.0           134.0
   Supply, total 7/         :  212.5      193.4         176.6           178.1
 Domestic & Residual 3/     :   86.9       89.8          89.0            89.0
 Exports 8/                 :   93.0       74.5          71.0            73.0
   Use, total               :  179.9      164.3         160.0           162.0
 Ending stocks              :   32.7       29.1          16.6            16.1
                            :
                            :
MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN        :
 Harvested acres (mil.)     :   0.63       0.64
 Yield (pounds/acre)        :  7,255      7,484
 Beginning stocks           :   13.8        9.4           8.9            11.9
 Production                 :   45.7       47.5          49.0            49.0
   Supply, total 7/         :   64.7       63.5          63.9            67.4
 Domestic & Residual 3/     :   32.5       33.1          35.7            35.7
 Exports 8/                 :   22.8       18.5          22.0            23.0
   Use, total               :   55.2       51.6          57.7            58.7
 Ending stocks              :    9.4       11.9           6.2             8.7
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.  1/ Marketing year beginning August
1.  2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type
undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil.
cwt): 2005/06-1.1; 2006/07-0.9; 2007/08-0.9. 3/ Residual includes unreported
use, processing losses, and estimating errors.  Use by type may not add to
total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and
ending stocks.  4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports.  Milled rice
exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis.  5/ Expressed as a percent,
i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by
the quantity of rough rice milled. 

 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price
received by farmers.  7/ Includes imports.  8/ Exports by type of rice are
estimated.  * Planted acres reported in March 30, 2007 "Prospective Plantings".
 Harvested acres are estimated using the average harvested-to-planted ratios by
State and rice class, 2004-2006.  Projected yield is derived from the trend
yields by rice class for the period, 1990-2006.  A slight downward adjustment
is made to the long grain trend yield due to the loss of two important
varieties because of the GMO problem in 2006-2007 (Cheniere and Clearfield
131).