USDA Supply And Demand Report

No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. 2008/09 rice supply and use balance.  Domestic and residual use is unchanged from a month ago; however, all rice exports for 2008/09 are lowered 4 million cwt to 94 million.  Rough and combined milled and brown exports (on a rough-equivalent basis) are each lowered 2.0 million cwt.  Long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain export projections are each lowered 2 million cwt to 72 million and 22 million, respectively.  All rice-ending stocks are projected
at 30.2 million cwt, 4 million above last month, but less than 1 million above 2007/08.

The all rice season-average farm price for 2008/09 is forecast at $15.50 to $16.50 per cwt, down 50 cents on both ends of
the range from a month ago.  The long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt,
down 50 cents on each end of the range.  The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at
$20.50 to $21.50 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago.
 
Weaker than expected demand for U.S. long-grain rice, particularly for long-grain milled and brown rice, combined with monthly farm prices reported by National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) through February (preliminary price) supports a lowering of both the all rice and long-grain season-average farm prices.  Medium- and short-grain farm prices remain strong due to both tight global supplies and the possibility of reduced plantings and production in California in 2009/10 due to drought.

Global 2008/09 rice production, trade, and stocks are increased from last month while consumption is lowered.  The increase in world production is due mostly to an increase in India, estimated at a record 98.9 million tons, up 1.4 million from last month.  Global production is estimated at a record 441.0 million tons, up 2 percent from the previous year. 

World consumption is projected at a record 433.4 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month, but up 1 percent from 2007/08.  Global exports are raised largely due to an increase in India, up 0.5 million tons from a month ago.  Imports are projected higher in a number of markets with the largest increases in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Malaysia which are partially offset by reductions in Bangladesh and South Africa. Global ending stocks are raised mostly due to the increase in India, up 1.5 million tons. India’s ending stocks are estimated at 17.0 million tons, the largest stocks since 2001/02.