USDA Supply Demand Report

U.S. rice production in 2008/09 is forecast at 203.5 million cwt, 0.7 million below last month due to a lower yield. Average yield is estimated at 6,959 pounds per acre, down 23 pounds from last month.  Harvested area is unchanged at 2.92 million acres.  Long-grain rice production is lowered 0.5 million cwt to 154.7 million, while combined medium- and short-grain production is lowered 0.2 million to 48.7 million.  Imports and domestic and residual use are unchanged from a month ago.  However, exports are lowered 1 million cwt to 107 million from a month earlier.  Long-grain exports are lowered 1 million cwt to 84 million, while combined medium- and short-grain exports are unchanged at 23 million.  Ending stocks are projected at 25.4 million cwt, nearly unchanged from last month.

The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt, down $1.35 per cwt on both ends of the range. The long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $13.85 to $14.85 per cwt, down $1.65 per cwt on each end of the range.  The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $17.00 to $18.00 per cwt, down $0.50 per cwt on each end.  Declining global rice prices and weak import demand have reduced price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.  Reported monthly farm prices from NASS through mid-October indicate a downward trend for both long-and combined medium- and short-grain rice.

Global 2008/09 rice production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks are raised from a month ago.  World production is forecast at a record 434.3 million tons, up a million tons from last month due mainly to increases for China, India, Pakistan, South Korea, and several African countries, which are partially offset by reductions for the United States, Brazil, and Russia.

Global consumption is raised from a month ago due mainly to increases for China and several African countries.  Exports are increased for China, India, and Pakistan and lowered for the United States.  Imports are raised for several African countries including Cote D'Ivoire, Mauritius, and Reunion.  Global ending stocks for 2008/09 are projected at 80.6 million tons, up slightly from last month, and an increase of 2.2 million from the 2007/08 estimate.