India’s rice exports may fall on stronger rupee, local demand

Rice exports from India, the world’s second-biggest grower of the grain, may fall this year as gains in the rupee make overseas shipments less competitive and domestic consumption increases. Exports in the year ending March 31, 2008, may drop at least 20% from 3.6 million metric tonne shipped last year, said R S Seshadri, director of New Delhi-based producer Tilda Riceland Ltd. Reduced shipments from India may help Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan boost their share of the world rice market and extend the past year’s 28% gain in prices on the Chicago Board of Trade.

India’s rupee has gained more than 8% against the dollar this year to its highest in almost nine years. The US currency has dropped 6.1% against the baht this year and is little changed against Vietnam’s dong and Pakistan’s rupee.

Gains in prices of wheat, a competing cereal, prompted some consumers in the world’s second-most populous nation to eat more rice, reducing the amount available for export to the Middle East, West Africa and Sri Lanka.